*”When people ask me what the best investment strategy is, I usually smile and tell them: the best strategy is the one you can stick to when the world turns upside down. Between 2020 and 2025, the world didn’t just turn upside down — it spun like a roulette wheel. A pandemic, the sharpest interest rate hikes in decades, a boom in artificial intelligence, the freeze of IPO markets, and the silent rise of private credit — all of these were not headlines, but stress tests for every investor’s portfolio. At iVenturer Foundation, we’ve seen both sides of the coin. On one hand, the ‘safe’ options — deposits and traditional stock/bond portfolios — have their place. On the other hand, the disciplined allocation into alternatives has quietly, yet decisively, outperformed, not just in numbers but in resilience. This analysis is not about glorifying one approach or ridiculing another. It is about evidence. If you had $100,000 in 2020, the path you chose has defined your wealth today. Our mission is to make those paths clear — with real data, realistic outcomes, and the courage to embrace strategies that others often overlook. In the end, investing is not about chasing the hottest trend, but about designing a system that works through cycles, shocks, and surprises. That is exactly the philosophy we’ve built into iVenturer’s DNA.” — Aleksei Olin, Managing partner @ iVenturer Foundation Methodology: No Hype, Just Data To make this comparison fair, we used real-world benchmarks and conservative assumptions: Stocks (S&P 500 Total Return):2020 +18.4%, 2021 +28.7%, 2022 −18.1%, 2023 +26.3%, 2024 +25.0%, 2025 YTD +15.3%. Bonds (Bloomberg US Aggregate):2020 +7.7%, 2021 −0.6%, 2022 −14.4%, 2023 +6.4%, 2024 +3.1%, 2025 YTD +7.0%. 60/40 Portfolio: annual rebalancing. Bank deposit (1-year CD, US national average):2020 0.3%, 2021 0.2%, 2022 1.0%, 2023 1.9%, 2024 2.0%, 2025 2.0%. Alternative investments (iVenturer proxy): 40% Private Credit (Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, 8–12%). 30% Private Equity (Cambridge Associates US PE, −4% to +28%). 20% Venture Capital (CA US VC, −20% to +50%). 10% Hedge Funds (HFRI FWC, 5–10%). 💡 Important: For alternatives we assume access to quality managers and secondary markets — which means better-than-average returns and medium liquidity (6–12 months exit window). Scenario A: The Classic 60/40 Portfolio Result: $171,451 (+71.5%). Year by Year 2020: Pandemic crash, then a huge rebound. Portfolio +13%. 2021: Stimulus-fueled boom. +18.5%. 2022: The nightmare year — both stocks (−18%) and bonds (−14%) lost money. Portfolio −13%. 2023: AI-driven rally. +18%. 2024–25: Continued bull market momentum. Strengths Time-tested, delivers 7–8% CAGR long-term. Easy access, instant liquidity via ETFs. Diversification between equity growth and bond safety. Weaknesses Volatility. In 2022, many panicked and sold at the worst time. Dependent on Fed policy and macro cycles. Inflation can erode real gains. Scenario B: The Bank Deposit Result: $107,602 (+7.6%). Year by Year 2020–21: Practically zero yield (0.2–0.3%). 2022–23: Fed hikes push deposits up to 1–2%. 2024–25: Stabilized at ~2%. Strengths Security: FDIC insurance up to $250,000. Predictability. Ideal for emergency funds. Weaknesses Negative real returns: inflation 5–7%, deposit yields 1–2%. Zero wealth creation. An opportunity cost you can feel in your bones. Scenario C: Alternative Investments (iVenturer Proxy) Result: $205,000 (+105%). Year by Year 2020–21: VC and PE boomed, private credit delivered double-digit coupons. Portfolio +35–40% in just two years. 2022: Valuations dropped, VC −20%, PE −4%. But private credit and hedge funds cushioned the blow. Portfolio −3%. 2023: Stabilization, private credit at record highs (10%+), PE back to growth. Portfolio +12%. 2024–25: Double-digit returns: private credit 11–12%, PE 8–10%, VC rebounds, hedge funds steady. Portfolio +30%+ across two years. Strengths Highest returns: $205,000 vs. $171,000 (60/40) vs. $108,000 (deposit). Medium liquidity: exit possible in 6–12 months via secondary market or structured buyouts. Diversification across non-public markets. Private credit advantage: thrives when banks tighten lending. Weaknesses Results vary by manager: top quartile funds massively outperform, median funds can lag. Valuation lag: you won’t see daily pricing. Early exit may require a discount. The Big Comparison Investment Type Final Value (2025) Total Return Liquidity Notes 60/40 Stocks/Bonds $171,451 +71.5% High (ETFs) 2022 drawdown, strong 2023–25 recovery Bank Deposit (1-year CD) $107,602 +7.6% High Safe but crushed by inflation Alternatives (iVenturer) $205,000 +105% Medium (6–12 mo.) Strongest performance, requires patience and manager selection Risk & Reality Check Liquidity: Deposit: instant. 60/40: instant via ETFs. Alternatives: 6–12 months. Volatility: Deposit: zero. 60/40: moderate (−13% in 2022). Alternatives: lumpy, but diversified. Return potential: Deposit: tiny. 60/40: respectable. Alternatives: best-in-class if executed well. Investor profile: Deposit: retirees, ultra-conservatives, short-term reserves. 60/40: mainstream investors with 5–10 year horizons. Alternatives: professionals, long-term wealth builders, patient capital. Final Thought The past five years have been an accelerated masterclass in what truly drives returns — not luck, but structure. Markets rewarded those who balanced courage with patience, diversification with discipline, and liquidity with foresight. The lesson is simple: the financial landscape of the next decade will not be defined by a single asset class, but by how intelligently capital moves between them. Traditional portfolios will remain the backbone of global wealth, yet the premium opportunities will increasingly lie in private markets, tokenized assets, and hybrid investment models that merge data, technology, and human insight. At iVenturer Foundation, we believe the future of investing is integrated, intelligent, and inclusive. Integrated — because the best portfolios combine both public and private markets. Intelligent — because analytics and automation redefine how risk and opportunity are managed. Inclusive — because wealth creation must be accessible to those who think long-term, not just to those with access. The next wave of winners won’t be those who time the market. They will be the ones who build frameworks that outperform it — strategically, sustainably, and with conviction. — Aleksei Olin, Managing partner @ iVenturer Foundation
The Naked Truth: There Are Too Many Ideas Let’s start with the unpleasant part.Your startup, your project, or your “innovative idea” is not unique. I’ve seen hundreds like it. They all had the same traits: shining eyes, ambitions to “disrupt the market,” and an unshakable belief that “we are different.” A year later, 80% of them were gone. Not because the idea was bad, but because they tried to play professional sports without a coach, without tactics, and without even a uniform. The Illusion of “We’ll Manage on Our Own” Every entrepreneur goes through the phase: “We don’t need anyone, we’ll do it ourselves.”It sounds romantic. In reality, it’s economic suicide. Over 20 years I’ve seen the same patterns repeat: Startups with products “for the whole world” that couldn’t even close their first round. Investors who “know how to choose” putting millions into flashy presentations—and getting zero back. Corporations launching innovation committees that produce reports instead of results. Why Professionals Matter Business is war. And in war, survival is not about who has the prettiest flag, but who has: intelligence (analytics), weapons (capital and tools), allies (partners and networks), strategy (experience of survivors). That’s what iVenturer provides. We’re not “just another fund.” We are a system that shortens the path from idea to outcome. Three Types of Mistakes We Fix Naïve founders. They think money solves everything. But capital without a strategy is fuel in a car without a driver. Overconfident investors. They believe they can “see through people.” In reality, they lose millions to charismatic empty suits. Bureaucratic corporations. They love to say “innovation,” but launch endless committees. The result: slides, not solutions. Case Studies That Speak Louder Than Words Fintech, 2012: rejected by everyone. We built a consortium, reshaped the strategy, and launched in the EU. Three years later—exit ×9. AgriTech, 2018: no connections, no chance. We introduced European partners. Result: exports to three countries, ×7 revenue growth in 18 months. Corporation, 2021: 14 startups tested in an accelerator. Four implemented. 12% cost savings in year one. Millions saved—without layoffs. E-commerce, 2020: started with $200K turnover. Two years later with iVenturer—$4.5M and a strategic investor from Asia. Conclusion: The Harsh Comfort of Reality Let’s stop pretending. The startup cemetery is already overcrowded with “world-changing ideas” that never made it past a pitch deck. Investors have a drawer full of worthless equity certificates. Corporations are still hosting “innovation weeks” that generate more hashtags than revenue. And entrepreneurs keep proudly wearing the badge of “learning from mistakes,” while in reality they’ve just wasted three years of their life and someone else’s money. Here’s the truth no one likes to hear: business is not a fairy tale about hustle and passion. It’s a brutal filtering system that rewards only those who are smart enough to prepare, strategic enough to adapt, and humble enough to admit they need help. Five Laws of Survival (Yes, with Sarcasm) Your idea is worthless. What matters: product, customers, model. Investors aren’t ATMs. They expect returns, not tears. Corporations aren’t innovation paradises. They’re machines that stall without external fuel. Mistakes aren’t always experience. Sometimes they’re just mistakes. The market is brutal. It won’t give you a second chance just because “you tried hard.” The market doesn’t care how hard you tried. It doesn’t care that you worked 100-hour weeks, or that your pitch deck had beautiful gradients. It doesn’t even care if you “changed lives” for six months. The market is a ruthless filter. It rewards discipline, execution, networks, and results. Everything else goes in the bin. That’s where professionals like iVenturer come in. We’re not your cheerleaders. We’re the team that drags you off the cliff before you jump, rebuilds the bridge you didn’t see, and introduces you to the people who can actually get you across. We give you the structure you hate, the discipline you resist, and the reality check you desperately need. So the choice is yours. You can keep being a heroic statistic in the 90% who vanish. Or you can work with professionals and finally build something that survives long enough to matter. Because dreams don’t pay dividends. Results do. And that’s exactly what we deliver. Written by Aleksei Olin, Managing partner @ iVenturer Foundation
iVenturer Foundation’s “The AI Product Landscape 2025-2026” for Business and Technology Leaders offers a strategic forecast for the AI product landscape between 2025 and 2026, highlighting the market’s shift from foundational model development to the widespread application of AI agents and integrated systems. It details explosive growth in the AI economy, particularly within large language models and AI governance, alongside a regional breakdown of investment priorities. The report further distinguishes between leading proprietary foundation models such as OpenAI’s GPT-6, Google’s Gemini, and xAI’s Grok-3, and the rise of open-weights alternatives like Meta’s Llama 3, emphasizing their respective strengths and strategic applications. A significant portion focuses on the transformative impact of agentic AI across financial services, healthcare, and supply chain management, and also addresses the critical need for robust AI governance and security frameworks to mitigate risks like disinformation and data exposure. Finally, the text explores specialized AI products, including advancements in creative AI, enterprise productivity tools, and the emergence of humanoid robotics, concluding with actionable recommendations for business and technology leaders to navigate this evolving landscape. Executive Summary The artificial intelligence market is entering a new, more mature phase, defined by a fundamental shift from foundational model development to the widespread application of AI agents and integrated systems. The period from 2025 to 2026 is marked by an industry-wide transition where the primary focus is no longer on raw model performance but on the strategic deployment of AI to drive tangible business value. This evolution is evident in several key areas: a significant shift in compute spending from model training to inference, the rise of specialized AI agents that operate autonomously, and the increasing imperative of robust AI governance and security frameworks. The competitive landscape is diversifying, with well-established players like OpenAI and Google facing stiff competition from a new generation of models, such as xAI’s Grok-3 and Anthropic’s Claude, which has gained a commanding lead in the enterprise market.1 The “open-weights” movement is also challenging the dominance of proprietary models, providing enterprises with a strategic alternative for greater control and cost efficiency.4 Across industries, AI is becoming an integral part of operations, automating complex workflows in finance, healthcare, and supply chain management.5 Simultaneously, new products in creative AI, enterprise productivity, and humanoid robotics are pushing the boundaries of what is possible.8 For technology and business leaders, success in this transformative era will depend on a multi-faceted approach. This involves prioritizing investments in agentic AI for complex workflow automation, building a secure and trustworthy AI environment, and strategically adopting a portfolio of proprietary and open-weights solutions. The most significant opportunity lies not just in technology adoption but in the strategic redesign of organizational models to empower a data-literate, AI-ready workforce, thereby leveraging human capital to its greatest advantage in an AI-powered future. The Macro View: Market Dynamics & Investment Trends The AI Economy: Explosive Growth and Market Projections The global artificial intelligence market is experiencing a period of explosive growth, with specific segments demonstrating remarkable trajectories. The large language model (LLM) market, in particular, is forecasted to see a substantial increase in size, reflecting its rapid adoption across diverse sectors. The market was valued at USD 5.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 7.77 billion in 2025, with a massive long-term forecast to exceed USD 123.09 billion by 2034, accelerating at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.92% from 2025 to 2034.12 This growth is not merely an indicator of speculative interest but a direct result of LLMs becoming a foundational technology for a wide range of applications. In parallel, the AI governance market is also experiencing a steep growth curve. The need for robust frameworks to ensure responsible and ethical AI use is becoming a central concern for organizations globally. According to one analysis, this market was valued at USD 176,788 thousand in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2,291,494 thousand by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 37.7%.13 Another report places the 2024 market size at USD 227.6 million, with a projection to reach USD 1,418.3 million by 2030 at a CAGR of 35.7%.14 While these reports show some variation in their total market size estimations, the remarkable consistency in their growth rate projections underscores a consensus on the massive future potential of this sector. The drivers of this market are clear: the growing demand for transparency and trust in AI systems, the need to mitigate risks like bias and data privacy concerns, and a new regulatory landscape.13 Regional Investment Priorities Spending priorities for technology executives in 2026 vary significantly by region, reflecting different market maturities and strategic focuses.15 In North America, tech decision-makers are most focused on investing in cloud, data centers, and security. The explosive use of AI is the primary catalyst for growth in cloud and data center spending, as organizations require the computational infrastructure to power their AI workloads. At the same time, high-profile security breaches and new threats, such as “bring your own AI” (BYOAI), are forcing leaders to spare no expense on security.15 A survey revealed that over 75% of executives in this region expect to grow their spending in all three of these areas in 2026.15 Europe exhibits a similar focus on cloud and security, but with a heavy emphasis on data sovereignty.15 This priority is driving investment toward private cloud and industry-specific public cloud offerings. In contrast to North America and APAC, the European market is less mature, which is reflected in a slightly lower expected growth rate for data center spending.15 The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is positioned as a bold innovator, setting global trends in areas such as multilingual generative AI and humanoid robotics.15 The region is expected to see the highest rate of IT spending growth in 2026, with 88% of decision-makers anticipating budget increases, compared to 82% in both North America and Europe.16 This reflects a strategic shift from being a fast adopter of technology to becoming a primary driver of innovation.15 The Shift in Compute: From Training to Inference A significant and strategic development in the AI market is the industry-wide shift