“The biggest trick that the tech giants pulled off was they made us believe that they were beyond politics and wars. We look at Mark Zuckerberg or Sam Altman and see visionaries. But the Pentagon generals see them as suppliers. While we’re debating whether AI will replace artists, it’s already learning how to choose targets on the battlefield. While we’re admiring rockets going to Mars, the same technologies are launching spy satellites. It’s time to admit that your gadget is not a window into the world. This is the terminal of the global control system, and you are just a piece of data in it.” Comments on: Aleksei Olin – specialist in international economic relations, cross-sectoral strategist, former Director of Development at ROSTEC Integration and the Foundation for the Development of Scientific and Technological Potential of Russia RUSNAUKA Here is a detailed analysis of how each sector of Big Tech has been integrated into the war machine. 1. OpenAI and Google: Intelligence in the service of war Until recently, OpenAI (the creator of ChatGPT) declared its mission to “create a safe AI for the benefit of all mankind” and had a strict ban in the charter on the use of its technologies for military purposes. In 2024, this item was quietly deleted. And already in the middle of 2025, the masks were finally dropped. The Pentagon announced the awarding of contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars for OpenAI, Google and Anthropic. The goal? Integration of advanced language models into national security systems. What does it mean? The same “kind” chatbot that writes you poetry or helps you with code, in its military guise, analyzes gigabytes of intelligence, helps plan operations and, potentially, can control swarms of drones. Google and Project Maven: Do you remember the scandal in 2018, when Google employees protested against the company’s participation in the development of AI for analyzing video from combat drones? The protests have subsided, and cooperation has reached a new level. Google’s cloud services are now the digital backbone for storing and processing military data. 2. SpaceX: Starshield instead of Starlink Elon Musk has been playing the independent private trader for a long time, but the war in Ukraine has put everything in its place. The Starlink system has become the main communication system on the battlefield. However, the Pentagon did not like being dependent on the whims of an eccentric billionaire who could turn off coverage in Crimea at will. The answer was found quickly.: Starshield. This is a separate division of SpaceX, created exclusively for the needs of the US government. The essence of the project: This is no longer the Internet for users. It is a secret network of spy satellites and secure communication channels, completely controlled by the military. Contract: The $1.8 billion deal with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) turns SpaceX into the main U.S. space intelligence contractor. Your dreams of colonizing Mars are actually funded from the defense budget. 3. Meta (Facebook): A dual-use social network Mark Zuckerberg did not stay away either. Meta has opened up its advanced Artificial intelligence (Llama) models to U.S. military agencies and defense contractors (such as Lockheed Martin). Why is this necessary? Officially, it’s for “cyber defense and logistics.” Instagram Facebook and Instagram social graphs and behavior algorithms, honed on billions of Facebook and Instagram users, are the perfect tool for psychological operations (PSYOPs), tracking social unrest, and modeling the behavior of entire nations. 4. Palantir: The “All-seeing Eye” of Sauron If Google is a librarian, then Palantir is a spy. The company is named after the “seeing stones” from The Lord of the Rings, and this is no joke. Who is behind this: Peter Thiel (co-founder of PayPal and the first investor of Facebook). The bottom line: Palantir started with investments from In-Q-Tel (the CIA venture fund). Their Gotham and Foundry software collects disparate data (from phone calls and card transactions to satellite imagery and police reports) and builds a web of connections. Military use: In Afghanistan and Iraq, Marines used Palantir to predict the installation of improvised explosive devices and search for insurgents. The system literally said: “There is an 80% chance that this person will plant a bomb here tomorrow.” Today: Palantir openly declares that they are the “western shield”. Their software is used for real-time artillery guidance in Ukraine (the Skykit project). Aleksei Olin: “The most dangerous achievement of the Valley, which we often underestimate, is the rebranding of the military—industrial complex. Palmer Lucky and Musk have made war work “sexy” for twenty-year-old zoomers. In the USA, yesterday’s startup is going to make killer drones with the same enthusiasm that he used to go to make social networks, because now it’s a frontier, money and status. We still have a mental gap. Talented “IT specialists” often run from the defense industry like from fire, fearing bureaucracy and “chasing”. Our main challenge now is not to copy technology, but to create an environment where Russian Elon Musk does not run into the wall of a high—security facility, but gets carte blanche. We’ll make the hardware, but we can’t lose the battle for engineers’ motivation.” 5. Microsoft: HoloLens Glasses (IVAS) — Call of Duty in reality We are used to Microsoft being Excel and PowerPoint. But they’re doing something different for the U.S. Army. Contract: For an insane $22 billion. The bottom line: Microsoft took its HoloLens augmented reality glasses (which were advertised for designers and gamers) and turned them into an IVAS (Integrated Visual Augmentation System) system. Military application: Soldiers see the battlefield as in a video game. The glasses overlay a tactical map on reality, highlight enemies (using thermal imagers and night vision), show the sight of weapons directly in front of the eye (even if the weapon is around the corner), and broadcast video from reconnaissance drones. Result: The gamification of war. The soldier turns into a unit with an interface. 6. Amazon (AWS): A cloud that holds nuclear secrets Jeff Bezos sells you

2025 in business and finance is shaping up as a transition year: growth is positive but weak, geopolitics is weighing on trade, and most optimism is concentrated in explosive AI investment and the re-opening of the M&A and IPO markets. Below is an expanded overview of 10 key storylines and what they mean for capital allocation and corporate strategy. Commented by Aleksei Olin — specialist in international economic relations, investor, cross-sector strategist, Managing Partner at iVenturer Foundation. 1. Global Economy 2025: Resilient, but Slowing The IMF now expects global growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Developed markets hover around 1.5%, while emerging markets manage a bit above 4%. OECD projections follow the same trajectory: about 3.2% in 2025, then cooling to 2.9% in 2026, with only a partial recovery by 2027. UNCTAD describes 2025 as a “recessionary trajectory without a formal global crisis”: growth could drift towards 2.3% under the pressure of trade wars and uncertainty, while fiscal space is constrained by high public debt. The result: companies and investors operate in a mode of “managed pessimism” — adapting to low growth without pricing in a full-scale collapse. A.O.: “3.2% global growth is no longer a forecast, it’s a diagnosis. We’ve officially entered the era of ‘new mediocrity’, where even the IMF is embarrassed to call sub-3% numbers ‘normal’. The good news: no recession. The bad news: no real growth either.” 2. Trade Wars 2.0 and the New Protectionism By 2025, it’s no longer just about isolated tariff spats. We’re seeing a broader shift toward protectionism. Analysts summarise the agenda with four words: Trump, Tariffs, Tech, Trade. Tariffs, technology restrictions and sanctions are tearing apart global value chains and pushing corporations toward regionalisation and friend-shoring. The IMF and OECD warn that a prolonged build-up of trade barriers and political uncertainty is likely to further depress investment and long-term growth potential. On the ground, this is already visible in: Relocation of production closer to core consumer markets Rising demand for politically “neutral” hubs (Gulf states, Southeast Asia, Latin America) Increasing complexity and friction in cross-border deals A.O.: “Trump-era tariffs in 2025 are like an expensive gym membership: everyone pays, nobody gets visibly fitter, but in theory it’s ‘good for the nation’s health’. So far, the main beneficiaries are lawyers and lobbyists in Washington, not the American worker.”   3. Central Banks: A Cautious Turn Away from Tight Policy By mid-2025, over 70% of central banks have started some form of easing cycle. The main reasons: declining inflation and slowing real activity. The IMF expects global inflation at about 4.2% in 2025, falling further to 3.6% in 2026. The United States is the exception. Both the IMF and major consulting firms expect US inflation to stay above target for longer, forcing the Fed to keep rates high and maintain a hawkish tone. This creates a tricky backdrop: Money becomes cheaper in Europe, parts of EM and Asia The high US dollar rate keeps the USD strong and pulls capital into US assets A.O.: “About 71% of central banks are cutting rates, and the Fed is just sitting there, looking down at them like a senior professor at students who barely passed their exams. We get a rare combo: the world is easing, but the dollar is still king of the hill. A paradox — but a pleasant one if you’re sitting in USD cash.” 4. Davos 2025: Rethinking Growth and Shifting to Quality The theme of the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos is “Reimagining Growth” — rethinking the growth model in a post-inflation world shaped by tech disruption and political fragmentation. The focus is shifting from pure GDP expansion to resilience, productivity, inclusion and climate sustainability. In finance, three themes dominate: Structural reform of pension systems and capital markets for ageing societies The expanding role of private capital (PE, private credit) and sovereign wealth funds as new anchor investors Systemic deployment of AI and green technologies to boost productivity For corporations, the message is clear: the winners are not just those who grow, but those who can demonstrate the quality and sustainability of that growth. A.O.: “The Davos-2025 theme ‘Reimagining Growth’ roughly translates from Davos-speak as: ‘We admit the old growth model is dead, but we’ll explain it beautifully over good wine.’ The main takeaway: everyone agrees we need new growth, but nobody really knows where it will come from. Classic Davos.” 5. Explosive AI Capex: From $300 Billion to $400+ Billion The signature phenomenon of 2025 is unprecedented AI capex by Big Tech. Analysts at major banks estimated combined AI infrastructure spending by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta at over $300 billion in 2025 — mainly in data centres and GPU clusters. As forecasts were updated, the upper bound kept rising. Some studies now place total AI capex above $400 billion in 2025, implying roughly 60% year-on-year growth. Just a year earlier, expectations hovered around $280 billion, meaning the market underestimated the scale of the coming investment cycle. A.O.: “$300–400+ billion of AI capex in 2025 is no longer just ‘investment’ — it looks like a new religion. It’s the belief that if you build one more data centre the size of a small city, someday it will start printing money on its own. Right now it’s the largest capital-intensive bet on “we’ll figure it out later” that we’ve seen in economic history.” 6. How AI Investment Props Up the Economy — and Distorts the Picture Research on the US economy suggests that direct AI-related spending by Big Tech in 2025 (roughly $360 billion in the US alone) could support close to $1 trillion in total output and millions of jobs across the whole chain — from data-centre construction to surrounding services. This makes AI capex one of the primary engines of US growth at a time when other forms of investment are weakening. But there’s a catch: Some analysts argue that AI spending masks structural weakness in traditional investment

For the past decade, “software is eating the world” was the mantra echoing across every boardroom and pitch deck. From Silicon Valley to Singapore, developers were treated as modern alchemists — turning code into billions. But now, something’s cracking.In 2025, we’re witnessing an unprecedented phenomenon: the global collapse of IT hiring. From American giants trimming engineering teams by 50–70%, to European outstaffing firms shrinking by 90%, to Russia’s own tech majors — Sber, VK, MTS, VTB — collectively cutting thousands of developers, it looks like the golden era of limitless tech expansion is fading. The Overhiring HangoverLet’s be honest — the “developer shortage” narrative might’ve been one of the most successful PR myths of the 2010s and early 2020s. Companies overhired in a race for talent, driven by cheap capital and fear of missing out. Startups doubled teams overnight. Corporations built internal labs for every imaginable “future tech.”Then reality hit. Rising interest rates, geopolitics, shrinking venture capital flows — all pulled the rug from under that growth-first mindset. Today, almost every global tech company faces the same question: is this project profitable right now? If not, it’s out.Investors Have Grown UpVCs and corporates have flipped from growth at any cost to profit or perish. Experimental AI tools, metaverse platforms, tokenized dreams — all the darlings of yesterday’s hype cycles — suddenly look unsustainable without clear monetization paths. Investors are no longer paying for “potential.” They want margins.That shift reverberates all the way down to the developer level: fewer moonshot projects, less R&D inflating payrolls, more engineered efficiency. The Paradox: Fewer Developers, More DemandHere’s the irony: while companies are laying off en masse, the digital world is still expanding. Startups will be rebuilt, products will reboot, and automation will create new niches — just no longer under the same “infinite growth” illusion.The market is rebalancing. Developers aren’t disappearing; they’re redistributing — from corporate labs to leaner startups, from bloated projects to solvable problems. The New RealityThe IT collapse, as painful as it seems, might be a correction the industry needed. After years of inflated valuations and unchecked hiring, tech is returning to its roots: efficiency, innovation, and profitability.The heroes of this new phase won’t be the unicorn hunters — they’ll be the builders who understand that tech has to make money again.

Table of Contents Introduction: On the Threshold of a New Era The world is at a critical point of transformation that will define the shape of humanity for decades to come. By 2035, global civilization will experience changes comparable in scale to the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century, but unfolding with unprecedented speed. The convergence of technological breakthroughs, demographic shifts, geopolitical realignment, and the climate crisis creates a unique configuration of challenges and opportunities. This article is based on interdisciplinary analysis of academic research, forecasts of leading international organizations (UN, OECD, World Economic Forum, McKinsey Global Institute), and big data on trends across various sectors. Our aim is not to predict a deterministic future, but to identify structural patterns and development scenarios that can help us understand the direction of global civilization. Demographic Revolution: An Aging North, a Young South Global Demographic Trends The world’s population will reach approximately 8.9 billion by 2035, but behind this figure lies a dramatic transformation of age structure and geographic distribution. An aging developed world. High-income countries are experiencing a demographic crisis of historic proportions. By 2035, the number of people over 65 will increase by 36%—from 857 million in 2025 to 1.2 billion. In Europe, around 30% of the population will be over 60; in Japan, more than 35%. China will face the most dramatic scenario: its population will shrink from 1.4 billion in 2025 to 1.3 billion by 2035, with a possible decline to 600 million by 2100. A youthful Global South. Meanwhile, Africa and parts of Asia are undergoing a demographic explosion. By 2035, Africa’s population will reach 1.7–1.8 billion, and by 2050 will reach 2.2 billion, or 24% of the global population (compared with 9% in 1950). India has already surpassed China as the world’s most populous country and by 2035 will have around 1.5–1.6 billion people. Socio-Economic Implications Dependency ratios and economic strain. Aging populations in developed countries will put immense pressure on welfare systems. Europe’s dependency ratio (working-age people to retirees) will fall from 4:1 in 2015 to around 2.5–3:1 by 2035. This will require radical reforms to pensions, healthcare, and eldercare systems. Urbanization and megacities. By 2035, 68% of the world’s population will live in cities. The number of megacities (over 10 million residents) will rise from 34 in 2024 to 48 in 2035. Fourteen will exceed 20 million inhabitants, with Delhi at the top (43 million) and Tokyo second (36 million). Most of these megacities will be in developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia. Lagos, Kinshasa, and Dar es Salaam are projected to become the world’s largest urban agglomerations by the end of the 21st century, creating unprecedented challenges for infrastructure, resource management, and social stability. Technological Revolution: Artificial Intelligence and Automation AI and the Transformation of Work Artificial intelligence will radically reshape the nature of work by 2035. According to various studies, 30–60% of today’s jobs will be significantly transformed or automated. The automation paradox. AI will mostly complement rather than replace human labor, especially in high-skill professions. However, routine administrative and clerical roles face high automation risk. Analysis shows that up to 60% of administrative tasks may be automated by the 2030s. A new geography of opportunity. Jobs requiring creativity, social interaction, leadership, and expertise will be less vulnerable. Demand will grow sharply for AI/ML specialists (projected 57% growth by 2030), renewable energy engineers, data analysts, and AI ethicists. Productivity and inequality. AI may raise GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. The peak of its productivity impact will come in the early 2030s (adding 0.2 percentage points annually in 2032), before stabilizing. A critical risk is deepening inequality, as AI may widen the gap between high- and low-skilled workers. Education 2035: Personalization and Lifelong Learning By 2035, education systems will undergo fundamental transformation. AI-driven personalization. Ninety-five percent of knowledge assessment will become continuous and competency-based, rather than exam-based. AI tutors will provide 24/7 personalized support to two billion students worldwide. Neuroadaptive interfaces will optimize learning by analyzing brain activity. Lifelong learning as the norm. The concept of “one education for life” will be obsolete. AI career-navigation systems will recommend training opportunities based on labor market trends, personal aspirations, and evolving skill demands. Geopolitical Realignment: A Multipolar World From Hegemony to Multiple Centers of Power By 2035, the unipolar order dominated by the United States will be replaced by a multipolar system. Surveys suggest that 73% of global strategy experts expect a multipolar world by 2034, while only 44% foresee a purely bipolar U.S.–China rivalry. New power centers. China, India, and regional groupings (BRICS+, SCO) are strengthening their influence. Power is also being redistributed to non-state actors such as transnational corporations, megacities, and technology platforms. Fragmentation of governance. Multilateral institutions (UN, WTO) face a legitimacy crisis. In a worst-case scenario, the UN General Assembly could suspend operations by 2035 due to lack of member-state funding, while the WTO may lose relevance. In a best-case scenario, these institutions adapt to multipolarity through decentralization and inclusion of new actors. Tech Rivalries and Digital Sovereignty Decoupled ecosystems. The U.S. and China are building parallel technological ecosystems, including separate 5G/6G networks, competing AI standards, alternative payment systems, and duplicate semiconductor supply chains. Europe is attempting a “third way” through strict regulation (AI Act, GDPR). Data geopolitics. Data is becoming the new oil, and control over data flows is a matter of national security. By 2035, digital protectionism will be the norm: countries will require data localization and restrict cross-border flows. Climate Crisis and the Energy Transition Warming Trajectories and Implications The planet remains on a trajectory toward 2.2–2.4°C of warming by 2100, and some critical thresholds may be exceeded as early as 2035. Rising global temperatures are already driving ecosystem collapse, worsening extreme weather, and disrupting food and energy security across continents. Russia as a microcosm.Russia is both a major emitter and a key climate regulator due to its vast boreal forests, permafrost zones, and energy exports. In August 2025, President Vladimir Putin signed

Introduction: Why We Keep Talking About Money I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve been asked the same question by founders over the last 15 years:“Aleksei, how do I raise money for my startup?” It doesn’t matter where I am — a co-working space in Moscow, a tech park in Kazan, a coffee shop in Berlin, or a conference in Singapore — the question always comes. And my answer is usually the same: funding is not about the money, it’s about trust. Money, at the end of the day, is just paper (or more often, digits on a bank screen). Trust is the real currency of venture capital. If an investor doesn’t trust your team, your story, or your numbers, no amount of slides or enthusiasm will help. In Russia and the CIS, the journey is harder. Our ecosystem is younger, our exits fewer, and our risks greater. But our talent? Our engineers, our scientists, our founders? They are world-class. I’ve seen teams here that can match — or even out-innovate — their peers in Silicon Valley. The question is not: “Do CIS founders have the talent?” The question is: “How do they convince the world to back them?” That’s the journey we’re about to take in this article: a guided, interactive review of the startup funding landscape — Russia, the CIS, and beyond — told not from theory, but from my own experience as an investor, mentor, and Managing Partner of iVenturer Foundation. Chapter 1: The Global Landscape – Russia vs. U.S. vs. Asia Let’s set the stage with a simple comparison. The U.S. — Silicon Valley & Beyond Average seed round: $2–3 million. Valuations: aggressive, often based on potential rather than traction. Ecosystem: highly networked, liquid, with deep pools of angels, VCs, and corporates. Culture: failure is accepted. If your startup dies, you wear it like a badge. Asia — Speed and Scale Average seed round: $500k–$1.5 million (varies widely by region). Valuations: disciplined, sometimes lower than the U.S. but growing fast. Ecosystem: hyper-competitive, government-driven in some regions (e.g., Singapore, China). Culture: scale fast or get eaten. Partnerships with corporates are critical. Russia & CIS — Cautious Growth Average seed round: $200–500k. Valuations: conservative. Investors want proof, not just potential. Ecosystem: fragmented, with strong government influence (Skolkovo, IIDF). Culture: investors are skeptical, exits are fewer, compliance matters. The difference? In the U.S., investors bet on vision. In Asia, they bet on speed. In Russia/CIS, they bet on survival. This means that if you are a CIS founder trying to raise abroad, you must translate your story into the language investors understand. For Americans: big vision, big market, bold ambition. For Asians: clear scalability and operational discipline. For CIS: resilience, compliance, and smart risk management. Chapter 2: The Founder’s Dilemma A founder’s life often feels like standing at the edge of a cliff, asking strangers to help you build a bridge across. When I mentor founders, I ask one blunt question:“Why should anyone trust you with their money?” It forces a pause. Because many assume that having a great idea is enough. It isn’t. Investors look for signals, not promises. And the five universal signals are: Team. Do you and your co-founders complement each other? Lone founders rarely raise big. Traction. Do you have paying customers, or at least active pilots? Even a handful matters. Defensibility. Why won’t someone bigger crush you? Is there IP, data, or network effects? Unit Economics. Does the math make sense? Even if small, is your CAC/LTV ratio positive? Risk Awareness. Do you see your blind spots? Investors forgive risk — but not denial. I once sat with a deep-tech founder in Moscow. Brilliant biochemist. Nobel-level intellect. But when I asked him about risks, he replied: “That’s why I need investors — to figure those out for me.”Deal died on the spot. Not because of the science, but because no investor wants to pay to clean up your blind spots. Chapter 3: Instruments of Capital Here’s your fundraising toolbox, simplified: Pre-seed: Angels, family, accelerators. Small checks, but critical validation Seed: Convertible notes, SAFEs, small VCs. This is where your first real traction is tested. Series A/B: Institutional VCs, corporates. Expect heavy due diligence. Growth: Private equity, sovereign funds, international investors.   Trade-offs are everywhere: Convertible notes/SAFEs: quick, simple, but dilution risk later. Grants: non-dilutive but bureaucratic. Strategic investors: open doors, but may lock you in. At iVenturer, we once worked with a SaaS startup that turned down a local strategic investor because the term sheet gave the corporate too much control. Painful choice at the time — but two years later, the company raised 5x the valuation from an international VC. Lesson? Short-term money is easy. Long-term alignment is priceless. Chapter 4: The Art of Storytelling Numbers alone don’t raise capital. Stories do. A pitch deck is not a financial document. It’s a narrative. Investors must feel pulled into your story. Golden Rule: If your grandmother can’t explain your startup in three sentences, your story isn’t ready. At iVenturer, I coach founders to simplify. Less jargon, more clarity. Less “disruption,” more “here’s the problem, here’s why it matters, here’s why we’re the best team to solve it.” Chapter 5: The CIS Challenge Let’s face reality: raising money in CIS comes with hurdles. Currency volatility. Investors fear ruble returns shrinking against the dollar. Sanctions and perception. Even if not directly impacted, optics matter. Regulation. Laws change fast, especially around tech and finance. Exit scarcity. Few IPOs, fewer local acquirers. Solution? Structure globally. Most CIS startups raising abroad set up holding companies in Cyprus, Estonia, Singapore, or Delaware. Operations stay local, governance goes global. This dual structure sends the signal: “We play by global rules.” Chapter 6: Life After the Money Here’s the irony: most founders think raising money is the finish line. It’s not. It’s the starting line of the real race. Investors don’t just give you money and disappear. They expect: Regular reporting (monthly or quarterly). Transparency when things go wrong. Milestones