2025 in business and finance is shaping up as a transition year: growth is positive but weak, geopolitics is weighing on trade, and most optimism is concentrated in explosive AI investment and the re-opening of the M&A and IPO markets.
Below is an expanded overview of 10 key storylines and what they mean for capital allocation and corporate strategy.
Commented by Aleksei Olin — specialist in international economic relations, investor, cross-sector strategist, Managing Partner at iVenturer Foundation.
1. Global Economy 2025: Resilient, but Slowing
The IMF now expects global growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Developed markets hover around 1.5%, while emerging markets manage a bit above 4%. OECD projections follow the same trajectory: about 3.2% in 2025, then cooling to 2.9% in 2026, with only a partial recovery by 2027.
UNCTAD describes 2025 as a “recessionary trajectory without a formal global crisis”: growth could drift towards 2.3% under the pressure of trade wars and uncertainty, while fiscal space is constrained by high public debt. The result: companies and investors operate in a mode of “managed pessimism” — adapting to low growth without pricing in a full-scale collapse.
A.O.: “3.2% global growth is no longer a forecast, it’s a diagnosis. We’ve officially entered the era of ‘new mediocrity’, where even the IMF is embarrassed to call sub-3% numbers ‘normal’. The good news: no recession. The bad news: no real growth either.”
2. Trade Wars 2.0 and the New Protectionism
By 2025, it’s no longer just about isolated tariff spats. We’re seeing a broader shift toward protectionism. Analysts summarise the agenda with four words: Trump, Tariffs, Tech, Trade.
Tariffs, technology restrictions and sanctions are tearing apart global value chains and pushing corporations toward regionalisation and friend-shoring.
The IMF and OECD warn that a prolonged build-up of trade barriers and political uncertainty is likely to further depress investment and long-term growth potential. On the ground, this is already visible in:
Relocation of production closer to core consumer markets
Rising demand for politically “neutral” hubs (Gulf states, Southeast Asia, Latin America)
Increasing complexity and friction in cross-border deals
A.O.: “Trump-era tariffs in 2025 are like an expensive gym membership: everyone pays, nobody gets visibly fitter, but in theory it’s ‘good for the nation’s health’.
So far, the main beneficiaries are lawyers and lobbyists in Washington, not the American worker.”
3. Central Banks: A Cautious Turn Away from Tight Policy
By mid-2025, over 70% of central banks have started some form of easing cycle. The main reasons: declining inflation and slowing real activity. The IMF expects global inflation at about 4.2% in 2025, falling further to 3.6% in 2026.
The United States is the exception. Both the IMF and major consulting firms expect US inflation to stay above target for longer, forcing the Fed to keep rates high and maintain a hawkish tone.
This creates a tricky backdrop:
Money becomes cheaper in Europe, parts of EM and Asia
The high US dollar rate keeps the USD strong and pulls capital into US assets
A.O.: “About 71% of central banks are cutting rates, and the Fed is just sitting there, looking down at them like a senior professor at students who barely passed their exams.
We get a rare combo: the world is easing, but the dollar is still king of the hill. A paradox — but a pleasant one if you’re sitting in USD cash.”
4. Davos 2025: Rethinking Growth and Shifting to Quality
The theme of the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos is “Reimagining Growth” — rethinking the growth model in a post-inflation world shaped by tech disruption and political fragmentation. The focus is shifting from pure GDP expansion to resilience, productivity, inclusion and climate sustainability.
In finance, three themes dominate:
Structural reform of pension systems and capital markets for ageing societies
The expanding role of private capital (PE, private credit) and sovereign wealth funds as new anchor investors
Systemic deployment of AI and green technologies to boost productivity
For corporations, the message is clear: the winners are not just those who grow, but those who can demonstrate the quality and sustainability of that growth.
A.O.: “The Davos-2025 theme ‘Reimagining Growth’ roughly translates from Davos-speak as: ‘We admit the old growth model is dead, but we’ll explain it beautifully over good wine.’
The main takeaway: everyone agrees we need new growth, but nobody really knows where it will come from. Classic Davos.”
5. Explosive AI Capex: From $300 Billion to $400+ Billion
The signature phenomenon of 2025 is unprecedented AI capex by Big Tech. Analysts at major banks estimated combined AI infrastructure spending by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta at over $300 billion in 2025 — mainly in data centres and GPU clusters.
As forecasts were updated, the upper bound kept rising. Some studies now place total AI capex above $400 billion in 2025, implying roughly 60% year-on-year growth. Just a year earlier, expectations hovered around $280 billion, meaning the market underestimated the scale of the coming investment cycle.
A.O.: “$300–400+ billion of AI capex in 2025 is no longer just ‘investment’ — it looks like a new religion.
It’s the belief that if you build one more data centre the size of a small city, someday it will start printing money on its own. Right now it’s the largest capital-intensive bet on “we’ll figure it out later” that we’ve seen in economic history.”
6. How AI Investment Props Up the Economy — and Distorts the Picture
Research on the US economy suggests that direct AI-related spending by Big Tech in 2025 (roughly $360 billion in the US alone) could support close to $1 trillion in total output and millions of jobs across the whole chain — from data-centre construction to surrounding services.
This makes AI capex one of the primary engines of US growth at a time when other forms of investment are weakening.
But there’s a catch:
Some analysts argue that AI spending masks structural weakness in traditional investment and consumption
If the AI cycle slows, deeper underlying problems could become visible
The benefits are highly concentrated among a small number of tech giants and a few regions with access to capital and infrastructure
A.O.: “AI capex literally saved US GDP from embarrassment in 2025. Without those hundreds of billions, growth would be much closer to 1% than 3%.
It’s almost comical: the US economy is growing because four companies are building gigantic server farms ‘for the future’. It’s like measuring Soviet growth in the 1930s by how many blast furnaces were built — regardless of whether there’s any ore inside.”
7. Global M&A Market: Mega-Deals Are Back, Private Capital Takes the Lead
After the slump of 2022–2023, M&A is back in 2025. According to major investment banks, global deal value reaches around $4.3 trillion, up about 39% year-on-year.
Key drivers:
Lower borrowing costs outside the US
Restored CEO confidence
A rush to reshape portfolios around AI, healthcare and new-era financial services
A major storyline is the structural shift toward deep private capital and sovereign wealth funds. One emblematic example: the privatisation of Electronic Arts at a $55 billion valuation, the largest LBO in gaming history, led by Silver Lake and the Saudi sovereign fund.
The signal to the market: IP-rich companies are increasingly moving under the private umbrella, where large-scale transformation can be executed away from the pressure of public markets.
A.O.: “$4.3 trillion in M&A is less a market and more a luxury farewell tour.
Companies are realising that organic growth is nearly impossible in this environment, so it’s easier to buy something big, fire 20% of the staff and proudly report ‘synergies’. Private equity and sovereign funds feel like they’re at a premium brands fire sale after a bankruptcy.”
8. Global IPO Market 2025: A Controlled Reboot
If 2022–2023 were the IPO drought, then 2025 is the year of a controlled reboot. By late November, the US market alone has seen 300+ IPOs, roughly 55% more than the previous year.
Globally, the trend is also positive. Data for Q3 2025 show:
IPO proceeds up ~89% year-on-year
Number of deals up ~19%
The US, China and India dominate issuance
Crucially, there is a quality filter: investors prefer profitable or near-profitable companies, which is reflected in solid post-IPO performance — average returns of 16–25% over the first quarter for larger listings.
The pipeline is packed with tech, fintech and consumer brands (Klarna, Figma, StubHub and others), as well as Indian and broader Asian stories, reinforcing the multipolar nature of today’s public markets.
A.O.: “300+ IPOs in 2025 — yes, the primary market is alive again.
Of course, half of them are SPACs, micro-Chinese stories, and names that will trade 70–90% below issue price a year from now. But the key thing is: the window is open. The smart move is to get out while it is, before it slams shut again.”
9. Localised Financial Stress Instead of a Systemic Crisis
Despite the return of growth, the 2025 financial system is far from calm. Several studies note an elevated risk of a US financial shock, given asset bubbles in specific segments and high leverage.
In early autumn, we saw spikes in liquidity demand in US money markets, with banks borrowing tens of billions of dollars in a matter of days via tools like the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility — a clear reminder of hidden vulnerabilities.
Regulators are responding with tougher stress scenarios. The Fed’s 2025 stress tests assume sharp drops in equity and real-estate prices and unemployment rising to 10% to verify the resilience of major banks.
So far, this is working: there is no systemic banking crisis, but the mix of:
Expensive US debt
Elevated risk in commercial real estate
Stretched valuations in some sectors (especially AI tech)
remains a potential source of instability.
A.O.: “When banks suddenly tap $15 billion overnight through the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility, that’s not a ‘technical correction’ — it’s quiet panic in the server room.
Everything is under control for now, but these spikes sound like the first cracks in the spring ice. Time to listen carefully.”
10. Capital Flows Rewired: The Rise of South–South Links
UNCTAD and the World Bank note a dual movement in global capital flows:
Flight to quality — capital moves into more predictable developed markets, making financing harder for some EM economies
Rapid growth in South–South trade and investment
Already around one-third of global trade is between developing countries, and this share is rising.
For business, this means strategy can no longer be built solely around the US–EU–China axis. Rapidly growing regional corridors matter more:
China – Southeast Asia
India – Middle East – Europe
Latin America – Africa
And others
For investors, the challenge is to balance safety and alpha: developed markets offer stability, while select EMs offer demography, resources and leapfrog opportunities that can compensate for higher risk.
A.O.: “South–South trade is growing faster than anything else — and that’s probably the healthiest trend of the year.
When the North starts building walls and raising tariffs, the South simply turns to each other and says: ‘Fine, let’s trade among ourselves.’ There’s a level of pragmatism in that which the ‘old world’ badly lacks.”
Conclusion: 2025 as the Year of “Expensive Survival”
By the end of 2025, one thing is clear: we are not going back to the old configuration.
The world grows more slowly, but becomes more technological and fragmented
Capital is more expensive, but increasingly concentrated in the hands of players who know how to work with AI, private markets and geopolitics
For corporations and investors, the era of universal recipes is over. Success now depends on the ability to read a multi-layered map of risks and opportunities — and to act accordingly.
A.O.:“2025 is neither a crisis year nor a boom year. It’s the year of expensive survival.
Those who understand that growth is now paid, concentrated and tied to a few core themes (AI, tariffs, liquidity) will come out ahead.
The rest will sit and wait for a ‘return to normal’ — a normal that, most likely, isn’t coming back.”
